Texas Public Schools See Enrollment Decline

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Texas Education Agency (TEA) Commissioner Mike Morath appeared before the Texas House Committee on Public Education during an interim hearing on Monday to provide lawmakers with an overview of the current state of public education in Texas. The presentation focused on academic outcomes, enrollment trends, special education growth, and operational challenges facing school districts across the state.

The hearing occurred at a pivotal moment for education policy in Texas.

During the 89th Legislative Session, lawmakers approved substantial increases in public education spending while simultaneously creating Texas’s new Education Savings Account (ESA) school choice program. The result is a system where traditional public schools continue receiving increased institutional funding while school choice programs are funded separately, rather than transitioning toward a model where funding fully follows students between educational settings.

Texas Policy Research (TPR) raised concerns about this structure in written testimony submitted ahead of the hearing, arguing that Texas “still maintains a bifurcated education finance structure that prioritizes systems over students.”

Morath’s presentation highlighted several trends that may increasingly shape future legislative debates, particularly as enrollment growth slows, operational costs rise, and academic outcomes remain uneven.

Texas Public School Enrollment Is Declining

One of the clearest takeaways from Commissioner Mike Morath’s testimony was the sharp decline in statewide public school enrollment.

According to TEA data presented to lawmakers, public school enrollment fell from approximately 5.54 million students in 2024-25 to 5.47 million students in 2025-26, representing a decline of more than 76,000 students in a single year. The decline stands out because Texas public school enrollment had steadily expanded for years prior to the pandemic disruptions.

Importantly, these enrollment trends are not attributable to Texas’s new ESA program itself, as the first ESA award recipients will not begin utilizing those funds until the upcoming 2026-27 school year. Instead, the enrollment shifts appear tied to broader demographic and educational trends, including declining birth rates, slowing population growth in some regions, homeschooling expansion, charter school growth, and increasing interest in private education alternatives.

However, the timing of the enrollment decline still creates an important policy backdrop for the broader education funding debate now unfolding in Texas.

During the 89th Legislative Session, lawmakers simultaneously increased traditional public education funding while also creating a separately funded school choice program. Rather than transitioning toward a fully portable student-centered funding model, Texas effectively layered a new choice program onto the existing public education finance structure.

That distinction matters because lawmakers are now operating a system where institutional public education funding continues increasing even as enrollment begins softening, while school choice funding exists as a separate parallel structure.

Texas Policy Research raised concerns about this arrangement in testimony submitted ahead of the hearing, arguing that Texas “still maintains a bifurcated education finance structure that prioritizes systems over students” and that meaningful reform ultimately requires “funding portability and long-term structural reform.”

If enrollment trends continue softening over the coming years, lawmakers may increasingly face questions about whether Texas’s education finance system should remain institution-centered or eventually evolve toward a model where funding follows students more directly across educational settings.

Texas Academic Outcomes Continue Showing Mixed Results

Morath’s presentation showed modest academic improvement in some categories following pandemic-era learning disruptions, though many indicators remain below pre-COVID benchmarks.

Third-grade reading scores improved from 48 percent meeting grade level in the prior year to 52 percent in 2025. Eighth-grade reading scores also improved from 56 percent to 58 percent. High school completion rates increased slightly from 90 percent to 91 percent. However, math performance remains weaker.

Third-grade math performance stood at 46 percent meeting grade level in 2025, compared to 49 percent in 2019. Eighth-grade math scores remain well below pre-pandemic levels at 51 percent compared to 62 percent in 2019.

The presentation also highlighted ongoing concerns regarding college completion rates. TEA reported that only 37 percent of high school graduates from the class of 2017 completed a certificate or degree within six years, well below the state’s stated 60 percent goal.

These numbers reinforce the broader debate over whether continually increasing education spending alone can resolve long-term educational challenges.

Texas Policy Research argued in its testimony that policymakers should focus less on spending inputs and more heavily on measurable outcomes, innovation, and parental satisfaction.

Reading Recovery Continues While Math Achievement Lags Behind

The statewide assessment data presented by TEA showed a noticeable divergence between reading and math recovery trends.

Reading performance has gradually improved in recent years. TEA data showed the percentage of students meeting grade level standards in reading increased from 43 percent in 2021 to 54 percent in 2025. Math performance, however, has not recovered at the same pace.

Statewide math proficiency fell from 50 percent meeting grade level in 2019 to 35 percent during the height of pandemic disruptions in 2021. Although scores have improved somewhat since then, statewide math achievement remained at 43 percent in 2025, still below pre-pandemic levels.

Science and social studies scores have remained relatively stagnant over the same period. Science performance stood at 46 percent meeting grade level in 2025, while social studies remained at 49 percent.

The uneven recovery may intensify discussions about instructional quality, curriculum effectiveness, and how taxpayer dollars are being allocated within the broader education system.

Special Education Growth Carries Major Fiscal Implications

Another major issue highlighted during the hearing was the rapid growth in special education enrollment statewide.

According to TEA, the number of students receiving special education services increased by roughly 70 percent since the 2018-19 school year. The number of students served through special education rose from approximately 532,000 students in 2018-19 to more than 903,000 students in 2025-26. The percentage of students receiving special education services increased from 9.8 percent to 16.6 percent during that period.

This trend creates substantial financial and operational pressures for school districts.

Special education services often require specialized staffing, additional compliance obligations, individualized instructional support, and expanded service delivery systems. As enrollment in these programs continues increasing, lawmakers may face growing debates regarding funding formulas, staffing pipelines, and long-term sustainability.

School Districts Continue Navigating Regulatory Complexity

Morath’s testimony also emphasized the operational and administrative burdens facing Texas school districts. TEA noted that while some funding streams remain flexible, many allotments include highly specific spending restrictions that increase accounting complexity and compliance costs.

The agency identified several examples, including career and technology allotments, bilingual allotments, and early education allotments. TEA argued that rigid spending requirements can sometimes force unnecessary expenditures while simultaneously increasing administrative workloads. The agency suggested that additional spending flexibility could improve efficiency while still maintaining accountability through the state’s A-F accountability system.

Texas Policy Research raised similar concerns in its written testimony, warning that excessive mandates, reporting requirements, and compliance systems increasingly divert resources away from classrooms and instruction.

Four-Day School Weeks Continue Expanding Across Texas

Morath also highlighted concerns surrounding the growing adoption of shortened instructional calendars and four-day school weeks. TEA data showed an increasing number of campuses moving toward reduced instructional schedules in recent years.

According to the agency, campuses operating four-day school weeks demonstrated weaker academic outcomes compared to traditional five-day campuses. TEA reported that affected campuses experienced reading outcomes 6 to 8 percentage points lower and math outcomes 5 to 8 percentage points lower than comparable campuses operating standard schedules.

The issue may become increasingly relevant as districts continue navigating staffing shortages, operational costs, and teacher recruitment challenges.

Texas Education Funding Debates Are Likely To Intensify

Ultimately, Morath’s testimony illustrated the growing tension between rising taxpayer expenditures and ongoing structural challenges within Texas public education. Texas now operates a system where both traditional public education and school choice programs receive substantial public funding, yet the underlying finance structure remains largely institution-centered rather than student-centered.

At the same time, enrollment trends are softening, academic recovery remains uneven, special education costs continue growing, and districts are increasingly raising concerns about operational flexibility.

Supporters of school choice argue that meaningful reform requires funding portability and greater competition between educational providers. Defenders of the current structure maintain that public schools require stable institutional funding regardless of demographic fluctuations or enrollment changes.

Those debates are unlikely to disappear anytime soon.

As lawmakers continue preparing for future legislative sessions, questions surrounding funding portability, accountability, operational flexibility, and long-term educational outcomes will likely remain central to Texas education policy discussions.

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