SB 1021 is projected to have both short-term savings and long-term costs for the state. According to the Legislative Budget Board (LBB), the bill would result in a positive net impact of $135,428 to General Revenue funds over the 2026–2027 biennium. These initial savings are tied to reduced community supervision costs, as individuals convicted of stalking would no longer be placed on probation and instead face incarceration. The cost difference is based on the lower daily cost of community supervision ($2.44 for felony probation, $0.70 for misdemeanor) compared to incarceration ($86.50 per day).

However, starting in fiscal year 2028, the bill is expected to generate significant costs due to increased prison admissions and longer stays in state correctional facilities. The five-year outlook shows a growing fiscal burden, with estimated costs reaching $3 million in FY 2028, $8.5 million in FY 2029, and over $14 million by FY 2030. This shift occurs because the bill increases the prison population by removing the option of probation for stalking offenses.

While the state-level fiscal impact is clear, the effect on local governments is uncertain. Local costs will depend on how law enforcement, district attorneys, and county jails adjust to a higher volume of cases requiring pre-trial detention, prosecution, and potentially longer jail stays before transfer to state prisons.

In summary, SB 1021 presents a cost-saving opportunity in the near term but carries a notable long-term cost due to increased incarceration rates. These fiscal implications must be weighed against public safety goals and the policy's intent to deter serious stalking offenses.

Texas Policy Research recommends that lawmakers vote YES on SB 1021 based on its focused enhancement of public safety and victim protection. By making stalking a 3g offense under the Texas Code of Criminal Procedure, the bill removes eligibility for judge-ordered community supervision and ensures more stringent sentencing. This aligns with a strong commitment to individual liberty, particularly the right of individuals to be free from harassment, threats, and ongoing fear caused by stalking behavior.

The bill's intent is rooted in addressing the serious and often escalating threat stalking poses to victims. As detailed in the author's statement of intent and bill analysis, SB 1021 not only changes sentencing eligibility but also introduces important collateral protections: it empowers the Department of State Health Services to revoke or deny EMS certifications for individuals with stalking-related convictions, further isolating convicted stalkers from roles of public trust.

From a fiscal standpoint, the bill is expected to result in modest savings initially due to the removal of community supervision costs but will eventually lead to increased state expenditures as more offenders are incarcerated. However, these costs should be weighed against the societal and individual costs of failing to adequately punish or deter stalking, which often leads to further violence.

In sum, SB 1021 reinforces personal responsibility and advances individual liberty by prioritizing victim safety and holding stalkers fully accountable. It does this without expanding government power beyond existing criminal justice mechanisms, and it introduces no new rulemaking authority. The bill thus upholds core liberty principles while delivering targeted, meaningful criminal justice reform.