According to the Legislative Budget Board (LBB), HB 2677 would have a negative impact of $277.2 million on General Revenue-related funds for the 2026–27 biennium. The estimated General Revenue-related cost is relatively small in fiscal year 2026, at $236,986, because HHSC assumes services would not begin until September 1, 2026, after policy revisions and rate hearings needed to create the new benefit. The annual General Revenue-related cost then rises to $276.96 million in fiscal year 2027, $281.85 million in fiscal year 2028, $283.54 million in fiscal year 2029, and $291.83 million in fiscal year 2030.
The primary cost driver is Medicaid coverage of anti-obesity medication. LBB assumes those medications would be made available on a non-risk basis beginning in fiscal year 2027 and later carved into managed care in fiscal year 2030. LBB estimates 71,819 medication utilizers in fiscal year 2027, increasing to 76,162 by fiscal year 2030, with an assumed average annual cost of $11,864 per utilizer through fiscal year 2029 and $12,225 in fiscal year 2030. After accounting for vendor drug rebates, LBB estimates the net prescription drug cost in fiscal year 2027 at $264.39 million from General Revenue and $658.18 million from All Funds.
The bill would also generate costs from three new client-service benefits: intensive behavioral therapy, metabolic and bariatric surgery, and diabetes prevention programs. For fiscal year 2027, LBB estimates 41,976 utilizers for intensive behavioral therapy at an average annual cost of $580, 154 utilizers for metabolic and bariatric surgery at $1,371, and 13,064 utilizers for diabetes prevention programs at $584. Together, those client services are estimated to cost $12.93 million from General Revenue and $32.19 million from All Funds in fiscal year 2027.
LBB also identifies implementation and technology costs. HHSC would require $1.59 million from All Funds in fiscal year 2026 to establish new provider types, including $236,986 from General Revenue, with ongoing system-update costs of $41,734 from All Funds in later fiscal years. Some costs would be partially offset by increased insurance premium tax revenue from managed care payments, including an estimated $281,684 to General Revenue and $93,894 to the Foundation School Fund in fiscal year 2027. LBB anticipates no significant fiscal implication to local governments.
Texas Policy Research recommends that lawmakers vote NO on HB 2677. The bill would expand the scope of Texas Medicaid by requiring reimbursement for additional obesity treatment and diabetes prevention services, including intensive behavioral therapy, metabolic and bariatric surgery, anti-obesity medication, and services provided through diabetes prevention program suppliers. Although the bill does not expand Medicaid eligibility, it expands what Medicaid must cover for existing recipients, which is still a meaningful growth in the size and scope of state government.
The primary limited-government concern is that the bill creates new statutory Medicaid reimbursement mandates. Once placed in statute, these benefits would become part of the state’s ongoing Medicaid structure rather than a temporary, capped, or discretionary initiative. The bill also gives the executive commissioner of the Health and Human Services Commission rulemaking authority to implement the new obesity-treatment benefit and establish medical necessity criteria for anti-obesity medications. That increases HHSC’s administrative responsibilities and discretion in an already large entitlement program.
The bill would also increase the burden on taxpayers. The LBB estimates that the Committee Substitute would have a negative impact of $277.2 million to General Revenue-related funds during the 2026–27 biennium. Annual General Revenue-related costs would rise from $276.96 million in fiscal year 2027 to $291.83 million in fiscal year 2030. The largest cost driver is anti-obesity medication coverage, which LBB estimates would cost $264.39 million from General Revenue in fiscal year 2027, even after accounting for vendor drug rebates.
The bill does not substantially increase the regulatory burden on private individuals in the ordinary sense; it does not impose a new mandate on citizens to obtain treatment or comply with a new licensing or permitting regime. However, it would increase administrative and compliance obligations within the Medicaid system. HHSC would have to establish new provider types, adopt rules, revise policies, conduct rate-related implementation work, and administer new reimbursement categories. Medicaid managed care organizations and participating providers would also be subject to new benefit rules, utilization-management standards, billing procedures, and medical-necessity determinations tied to the expanded services.
The bill moves health policy in the wrong direction by shifting more health-care costs onto taxpayers and expanding government’s role as payer. Obesity and diabetes are serious health concerns, but the bill responds by enlarging Medicaid rather than relying on private insurance, direct primary care, market competition, charitable care, individual responsibility, or narrower reforms aimed at lowering the cost of treatment. The fact that the benefit applies to existing Medicaid recipients does not remove the concern; expanding covered benefits still expands the entitlement program.
The Committee Substitute includes some administrative guardrails, including making anti-obesity medication reimbursement subject to inclusion or provisional availability under the vendor drug program and allowing utilization management under certain conditions. But those guardrails are not sufficient to address the bill’s broader fiscal and structural problems. The bill does not include a spending cap, sunset date, pilot-program structure, legislative reauthorization requirement, or strong evidence threshold showing that the new Medicaid spending would produce offsetting savings.
HB 2677 grows the size and scope of government, increases recurring taxpayer obligations, expands HHSC authority, and adds new administrative requirements to the Medicaid system.